If Michael Steele enters the race, the GOP gubernatorial primary is set to be a War.

 

As of right now, David Craig is leading the GOP Gubernatorial field. He clocked in at 52% this month, putting him well ahead of Charles Lollar. He also finished a well famed "Announcement Tour" where he gained some serious attention in the media. However, in the event of Michael Steele entering the race, would numbers shift?

 

Earlier this year, we saw what happens when a candidate leaves the field. The "Post-Bongino" landscape allowed Craig to surge to front-runner status. How would a Steele entrance effect the race?

Well, it's quite simple. One thing we have noticed is that Lollar's base is extremely loyal. So far, they've stayed with him the whole way. They make up about 30-35%. In the event of a Steele entrance, Lollar would lose little or none.

Craig has a base, but not as large as his 52% or so. Remember now, a lot of his newer supporters were former "Bongino hopefuls" who defaulted to Craig. They're still up for grabs.

Whether or not Steele could win over that group is a mystery. But if he were to, he'd gather a good 15-20%. Enough to make him competitive.

The monoblogue recently published an article elaborating on possible exit strategies for the other gubernatorial hopefuls,  looking at the possibility of a Steele win in the long run.

Although this may seem plausible, it's hard to imagine Steele getting anywhere in this race. He hasn't been quite as active in Maryland since he lost his Senate bid in 2006. All the while, the other candidates have been building a reputation of their own. Steele was busy at the RNC. That was, until Priebus knocked him off.

Now if you're wondering about how the "territorial politics" would play out, the outcomes are likely predictable. If Steele gets in, Young stated that he would back out of the race. If that happens, Steele would  most likely get Frederick county's support, along with Washington, Allegany, and Garrett. Where would he go from there? He could definitely target Carroll and Baltimore counties, where he has a chance of expanding his popularity. After that, he has no where to go. Craig has locked Harford and the Eastern Shore, Lollar has the South, and who knows where Ron George would be. With all that division, what do you get? A GOP primary war.

That's exactly what the Maryland Republican Party needs right now. A party left in ruins, and weak for the general election. It's best Steele stays out of this race.